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"Women, bloggers and gays lead change in the Arab world." That is the headline of an article by Octavia Nasr for CNN's blog AC360°. "Several new lines are being drawn in the Middle East's desert sand simultaneously," she writes. "If they continue to be drawn at this rate longer and thicker, it's hard to foresee any governments, censors or jails being able to stop them."

Though Nasr sounds a bit overexcited about the existence of a feminist mag in Arabic in which "no one dares to advertise" and a few other developments which are interesting straws in the wind but scarcely signs of an imminent revolution, I think she has a point. If asked where change is likely to come from in the Arab countries, I would not put much faith in "reformist" politicians and opposition parties – they're mostly no-hopers – but I would definitely put feminists, gay men, lesbians and bloggers very high on my list.

It's important not to exaggerate what they are actually achieving at the moment, but let's consider their potential as challengers of the status quo and drivers of change. The "Arab problem" is mostly perceived in terms of the regimes: the lack of democracy, authoritarian rulers who trample over people's rights, and so on. That was the perception of the Bush administration in particular and it led to the simplistic idea that regime change was the solution.

It's now very clear (as I explain in my new book, What's Really Wrong With the Middle East) that this was a mistake. You can overthrow dictators, you can force countries to have elections and you can even insist on voting procedures that are reasonably fair, but that doesn't bring freedom unless it forms part of a much bigger social transformation.